Japan’s outgoing PM Kishida did a good job, despite dismal public approval rating: Analysts

Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is stepping down, as public approval ratings hover around record lows.
But analysts say the 67-year-old has done a decent job in his almost three years at the helm, particularly in his foreign policy endeavours.
Kishida on Wednesday (Aug 14) announced he will not run for the presidency of his ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) next month.
This effectively ends his tenure as prime minister after a new leader is elected in September.
James Brown, a political science professor at Temple University Japan, said Kishida has simply been the “very unfortunate” casualty of a political party marred by scandals and held in disdain by the public.
“Kishida has been very good, but exceptionally unlucky,” he told CNA’s Asia First programme.
“He is prime minister at a time when any leader of the LDP would suffer from significant unpopularity.”
Kishida said his exit is necessary to show the Japanese public the LDP is serious about reforms.
“The most obvious first step to show that the LDP will change is for me to step aside. Politics cannot function without public trust,” he told reporters in Tokyo.
Among major scandals were revelations of the party’s links to the controversial Unification church in 2022, following the assassination of former PM Shinzo Abe.
Kishida also sought to take responsibility for the mishandling of unreported political donations to his party late last year.
Despite not being personally involved in the scandals, the media and public accused him of weak party management.
“As a result of what was seen as indecisive handling of those scandals, that really harmed both Kishida’s popularity and the overall popularity of the party,” said Brown.
His approval rating plunged to 15.5 per cent last month – the lowest for a PM in more than a decade.
Kishida’s biggest fault – by far – is poor communication skills, said Tomohiko Taniguchi, a professor from the University of Tsukuba.
“Kishida has done a number of good things. But he has been very ill-capable in communicating his (achievements and visions) to the Japanese public. That’s his failure,” he said.
Kei Koga, an associate professor at the Nanyang Technological University’s School of Social Sciences, said: “Kishida wants to show genuine commitment to the reform of LDP. In order to improve both his and LDP’s image, he decided to step down.”
Still, analysts agree Kishida has performed his role well.
They lauded the outgoing prime minister for strengthening ties with allies and boosting Japan’s standing internationally.
Regardless of the Japanese public’s report card, “historians will be kinder”, said Taniguchi.
Under Kishida, Japan mended ties with South Korea to a positive level not seen since colonisation, allowing deeper security cooperation to counter the threat posed by North Korea.
He brought relations with the Philippines to a quasi-alliance level, amid China’s growing assertiveness in the disputed South China Sea.
Japan strengthened its alliance with the United States by enhancing security cooperation, including as part of the Quad strategic dialogue that also involves Australia and India.
Last year, as chair of G7, Kishida hosted leaders in Hiroshima.
He also unveiled Japan’s biggest military buildup since World War II, approving a hike in defence spending as the country faces a more complex security environment.
At home, Kishida advocated for the use of nuclear power on the back of rising fuel prices and the promotion of clean energy to meet the nation’s 2050 net zero goal.
He also gave the green light for the Fukushima nuclear plant to release treated and diluted radioactive wastewater into the sea – a key step in decommissioning the reactors.
Seasoned politician Shigeru Ishiba has emerged as the public’s top choice to replace Kishida despite his previous unsuccessful bids for leadership, according to a recent opinion poll.
The 67-year-old has held defence and agriculture ministerial portfolios, and is a former LDP secretary general.
Another possible candidate is Digital Transformation Minister Taro Kono, who served as foreign and defence ministers in the past. He lost to Kishida in the last party election.
Experts say Kono has long been popular with the public, and is seen as an outsider who could potentially revamp the LDP’s image.
A party heavyweight who could be in the running is Toshimitsu Motegi, the LDP’s current secretary general.
He has served in many Cabinet posts, including as foreign, trade and economy ministers, and is known for his tough negotiating skills.
The country could see its first female prime minister if Yoko Kamikawa gets chosen for the top job. She is currently Japan’s foreign minister and has also served as the country’s justice minister.
Another potential female candidate is Minister of State for Economic Security Sanae Takaichi. Known for her conservative views, she ran in the last election in 2021.
Hopefuls first need to get the support of 20 parliamentarians to recommend them for office, which will be a first litmus test of their leadership calibre.
Analysts say that if public approval ratings jump for the new head of LDP – de facto PM – a snap election could happen as early as within the year.
There is bound to be some nervousness among Japan’s allies, as some LDP leadership hopefuls could have differing foreign policy outlooks.
But regardless of who is the next party leader and prime minister, observers expect little changes to foreign and defence policies.
“There is basically near consensus in terms of the US-Japan alliance, and considering the current strategic environment in Asia Pacific, the LDP and other politicians in Japan would consider the current cause of action as pretty good,” Koga said.
Taniguchi said: “Objectively speaking, Japan’s options are not many in number, and the path forward is narrow. There is going to be very little difference between now and the future when it comes to Japan’s foreign policy.”
General elections must be held by October next year, as required by the constitution.
The ruling LDP is expected to continue its reign, despite dismal approval ratings.
This is because Japanese opposition parties are even more unpopular, said Taniguchi.
“If you see what the polls say of the opposition parties, there is a fair chance for the LDP to regain popularity from the Japanese public,” he said.
However, this still depends on the debates between LDP leadership contenders over the next month, as well as the public opinion of the next chosen party head.
Brown said the public is focused on the bread-and-butter issues, living costs and the growth prospects of the economy.
“(Candidates) will seek to assure the public that they’re the safe pair of hands who can see this difficult economic period (through), and can bring in the policies that would help to stabilise the yen and promote growth in the coming years,” he said.
While a change in leadership is sure to improve public support amid expectations for a shakeup in the LDP, questions remain over whether genuine reforms would be made, observers said.